Based on the study published recently in JAMA Network Open, An estimate of 700,000 deaths across the United States could be contributed to opioid overdose from the Year 2016 to 2025.
In order to understand the consequences that line up to bound the actual misuse of prescription opioids. Chen along with his team of researchers from Harvard Medical School, Massachusetts General Hospital, and Boston University Medical School has worked over the concerned opioid deaths.
An innovative mathematical model has been developed by the team of researchers, which could better predict the approx results for opioid crisis between the Year 2002 and 2025. Through the data collected from National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) and Centers for Disease Control (CDC), the team standardized the model to reveal accurate results according to the actual trend of opioid-related overdose deaths observed in the period of thirteen years starting from 2002. From the thirteen years data, the team used their developed model to predict the possible outcomes of the deaths by overdose till the Year 2025, based on the continuing trends.
The scientists observed that, if the current trend would remain in the upcoming years, the mortality through annual opioid overdose will mount from 33,100 in the Year 2015 to 81,700 in the Year 2025, which is almost 147% raise. Of the total deaths from opioid overdose, 80% of those deaths will result from illegal opioid use, such as fentanyl. In every situation experienced, the team found that involvement designed to reduce misuse of prescription opioid resulted in 3 to 5% decrease in overdose deaths.
Under an extreme hypothetical condition, where zero additional incidents regarding misuse of prescription opioid took place in the Year 2015, still, the mortality rate through overdose would remain higher in 2025.
Based on the NSUDH informative data, Chen and his team revealed that around 50% of the prescribed opioid addictives will shift towards the illicit drugs consumption.